Kenya caught in global power tug-of-war as US questions deepening ties with China and Iran

Kenya’s balancing act between global superpowers has drawn sharp attention in Washington following deepening diplomatic and trade ties with China and Iran, despite being the first sub-Saharan African country to attain Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) status.

President William Ruto’s foreign policy is now under scrutiny after his April 2025 state visit to Beijing, where he declared Kenya and China “co-architects of a new world order.” The comment sparked backlash from US lawmakers, with Senate Foreign Relations Chair Jim Risch leading calls for a review of Kenya’s MNNA designation.

This comes just months after Ruto’s celebrated May 2024 state visit to Washington, the first by an African leader in 15 years, which saw Kenya hailed as a key US ally in Africa.

But things changed in April when the US imposed 10% tariffs on Kenyan exports, despite the AGOA trade deal still being in force. Kenya, traditionally viewed as a regional anchor in counterterrorism and intelligence cooperation with the US, now finds itself under a geopolitical microscope.

“Real allies, or good friends, should not be judged on the basis of a single line in a speech,” said Dr. Martin Kimani, Kenya’s former UN envoy, defending Ruto’s China visit. “The Kenya I represented as a diplomat had pledged no allegiance to any single nation.”

Ruto has also doubled down, saying the China trip was purely economic. “They’ve agreed to remove all tariffs on our tea, coffee, avocado, and other exports. That’s a breakthrough,” he said at a recent private sector forum in Nairobi.

Still, growing ties with Iran have added another layer of tension. Kenya has dispatched Lt. Gen. (Rtd) Jonah Mwangi as ambassador to Tehran, a move likely to irritate US officials who view Iran with deep suspicion. Mwangi is expected to present his credentials on November 18.

Kenyan business leaders argue Iran’s 100-million-strong tea market is too lucrative to ignore, even as Washington raises eyebrows.

Back in Washington, scrutiny of Kenya is intensifying. There are questions over whether US-supplied intelligence or equipment may have been misused during the June 2024 anti-government protests, where extrajudicial killings were alleged.

The strain is heightened by Trump-era “Liberation Day” tariffs that have affected Kenyan exports. With AGOA set to expire in September 2025, Nairobi is racing to negotiate a bilateral trade deal with the US.

China, meanwhile, is offering an alternative. It announced in June that it would drop tariffs for all African nations except Eswatini. Kenya’s Trade Minister Lee Kinyanjui hailed the move as a win.

Still, critics say the benefits are uneven. In 2024, Kenya’s exports to China were just $200 million, compared to $296 billion in China-Africa trade overall.

“Removing the 7% duty on our avocados will help us compete with Peruvian fruit,” said Hasit Shah, a top agricultural exporter.

Carol Kariuki, CEO of KEPSA, has urged the government to explore similar deals with India, Iran, Canada, and Turkey. But this wider trade strategy could further strain ties with Washington, which has already imposed steep tariffs on India.

Behind closed doors, US diplomats may be applying the same pressure tactics used on South Africa to “correct” diplomatic drift.

Ultimately, Ruto’s strategy appears clear: align with whoever best serves Kenya’s economic future. But the question Washington is quietly asking remains, is Kenya still firmly in the US corner?