Rice shortage threatens price surge for maize, wheat as government rushes to expand imports

Rice Shortfall Could Trigger Spike in Maize, Wheat Prices, AFA Warns

The Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) has raised concerns that the country could soon witness a sharp increase in the cost of maize and wheat products unless rice imports are scaled up urgently.

In a statement issued on Thursday, July 31, AFA Director General Bruno Linyiru warned that Kenya risks either facing an acute shortage of food or soaring prices on key staples if additional rice is not brought in by December.

To cushion consumers, the Ministry of Agriculture, through a gazette notice dated Tuesday, July 29, announced that rice imports will be exempt from taxes until December 31, 2025. This move is intended to ease pressure on the strained local market.

The announcement, however, sparked concerns among stakeholders, who fear that the zero-duty imports could hurt local farmers. But Linyiru moved to allay these fears, assuring that local growers would not be economically disadvantaged by the policy.

“Before this decision was made, the Kenya National Trading Corporation (KNTC) was already purchasing rice directly from farmers at paddy stage and continues to do so throughout the milling process,” he said. “This guarantees a steady market for local rice farmers.”

Kenya currently produces just 264,000 metric tonnes of rice annually, a figure that falls 80 percent short of the country’s yearly consumption needs. To fill this gap, the government is expected to import 1.036 million metric tonnes, Linyiru confirmed.

He emphasized that the move is not only critical to addressing food security and price stability but is also aimed at protecting low-income households from further economic strain.

“Traditionally, this gap has been filled through imports. However, global supply chain disruptions and pricing shocks have made access more difficult, hitting the most vulnerable Kenyans the hardest,” said Linyiru.

He added that without additional imports, the shortfall would create a ripple effect across the food supply chain, causing prices of maize flour, wheat products, and other essentials to rise sharply, placing an unsustainable burden on millions of households.

To safeguard quality and public health, AFA has stated that only grade 1 milled white rice that complies with both Kenyan and international food standards will be allowed into the country. All imports will require a certificate of compliance from the Kenya Bureau of Standards (KEBS).

Meanwhile, Kenya is working with Japan to expand the Mwea, Ahero, and Bura Irrigation Schemes in a long-term plan to enhance local rice production and move the country toward self-sufficiency.

“This isn’t the first time Kenya has had to rely on rice imports to bridge the production gap,” AFA noted. “Such imports will continue until our local capacity can fully meet demand.”